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Module 10: Auction Market TheoryIntermediate 15 Min

Lesson 4: 10.3: Balance vs. Imbalance

Learn to distinguish between balanced ranging phases and unbalanced trending phases.

1. Balanced Markets (Ranges)

A market is in Balance when buyers and sellers agree on the current value of the asset. Price trades sideways within a defined range, and volume distribution forms a classic symmetric bell curve (normal distribution).

In a balanced market, price oscillates around a highly accepted central price, and deviations to the range boundaries are quickly rejected.

★ Market State: Approximately 70% to 80% of market time is spent in a state of balance.

2. Imbalanced Markets (Trends)

When new information enters the market, the agreement is broken, and the market enters Imbalance.

Aggressive participants drive price vertically in a search for new liquidity and value. The normal distribution curve is stretched, forming a trending market. Price will continue to run until it encounters sufficient counter-liquidity to halt the move and begin a new balance phase.

Candles moving sideways in a range, then expanding upward in one direction
Balance and imbalance. First price moves sideways in a range (balance), shown here for about 10 candles. Then it expands in one direction (imbalance), shown for about 8 candles. No claim is made about how much of the time markets spend in balance, and the profile is not assumed to be a normal distribution. Illustrative data.

KNOWLEDGE RECONNAISSANCE

Q01.

What characterizes a market that has entered a state of 'Imbalance'?

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